U.S. sanctions on Russia send global oil prices soaring to their highest levels in 5 months

01/17/2025 / By Laura Harris

Global oil prices have reached their highest levels since August, driven by U.S. sanctions on Russia.
New U.S. sanctions on Russia have forced major oil buyers, such as China and India, to seek alternative suppliers, potentially turning to the Arabian Gulf.
The global oil market has been realigned since the Ukraine war, with Russia selling discounted oil to Asia and competing with traditional suppliers like Saudi Arabia.
The incoming Trump administration is expected to impose additional sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, potentially reshaping the global oil market.
The price surge could have mixed effects on key players in the oil industry, such as Saudi Arabia, as the global market continues to evolve under Trump’s leadership.

Global oil prices have surged to their highest levels since August, driven by U.S. sanctions on Russia.

As of Jan. 13, Brent crude prices reached an impressive $81.29 per barrel, marking a 1.93 percent increase and the highest level since August. This really is primarily attributed to the decision of the Biden administration on Jan. 10 to unveil new sanctions targeting major Russian oil producers, over 180 Russian tankers and associated traders, as the U.S. prepares to exit the office.

The sanctions’ impact is already being felt, with at least 65 oil tankers dropping anchor off the coasts of Russia and China. This development has forced top buyers of Russian oil, such as China and India, to reconsider their supply sources, potentially turning to the Arabian Gulf for alternative supplies.

The global oil trade landscape has been significantly altered since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, with Russia selling discounted oil to Asia and encroaching on the market share of traditional suppliers like Saudi Arabia. This realignment of the global oil market, however, could be disrupted by the Trump administration’s expected actions.

President-elect Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to broker an end to the war in Ukraine, suggesting potential sanctions relief. However, Trump’s transition team has also signaled that he may maintain the existing sanctions and add more to boost American energy exports.

TankerTrackers, a company monitoring oil shipping, anticipates that the incoming Trump administration will impose additional sanctions on tankers associated with Iran and Venezuela, as well as the Russian LNG ecosystem, to capitalize on Europe’s rising demand for natural gas.

Trump’s Iran sanctions could reshape global oil market, impacting China, Saudi Arabia and beyond

Despite Trump’s professed aversion to sanctions, his team has expressed a willingness to intensify pressure on Iran to reduce its oil revenue. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has begun drawing down millions of barrels of oil from a storage site in China ahead of Trump’s inauguration.

The potential impact of these sanctions on China, now the top buyer of Russian and Iranian oil, remains uncertain. However, the current price rally underscores the significant influence of U.S. sanctions on global oil prices. (Related: Oil prices SURGE after Biden heard “discussing” military attacks on Iranian oil facilities.)

For the U.S.’s Gulf allies, such as Saudi Arabia, the price surge could be a double-edged sword. While a rally in oil prices could help finance the kingdom’s costly mega-projects like Neom, designed to diversify its economy, the sanctions on Iran and Russia have undercut Saudi Arabia’s position in the Asian market.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to reach around $100 per barrel to balance its budget. As the global oil market continues to evolve, the next four years under Trump’s leadership could see significant fluctuations and challenges for all players in the oil industry.

The unfolding scenario highlights the complex interplay of geopolitical factors and economic policies that continue to shape the global oil market and, by extension, the world economy.

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Watch an economist admonishing President Joe Biden to end the war on U.S. oil or lose his presidency.

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