The New Right’s march: How Ukraine’s endgame could shatter Europe’s Centrist order

• Far-right and populist parties now lead polls in Germany, France and Britain, signaling a historic shift in European politics.
• Establishment parties in Germany, France and Romania have used legal maneuvers, electoral irregularities and coalition “firewalls” to block the New Right from governance.
• A Russian victory in Ukraine would weaken Centrist narratives, expose war folly and bolster the New Right’s credibility on foreign policy.
• Deindustrialization, energy crises and unchecked immigration have eroded public trust in Centrist leaders, pushing voters toward nationalist alternatives.
• If the New Right gains power, it could reshape EU policies on Russia, immigration and sovereignty—potentially dismantling the Centrist establishment’s grip.

For the first time in modern history, far-right and populist parties simultaneously lead polls in Europe’s three largest economies: Germany, France and Britain. This seismic shift, driven by voter discontent over immigration, economic decline and the Ukraine War, threatens to dismantle the Centrist establishment that has dominated European politics for decades. The question is no longer if the New Right will rise—but when it will take power, and what that means for a continent teetering on the edge of collapse.

The catalyst? The looming end of the Ukraine War. As Russian forces solidify their gains and Western support for Kiev wanes, the conflict’s conclusion could deal a fatal blow to Europe’s Centrist elites. Their narrative—built on fear of Russian aggression, unchecked militarism and economic sanctions—is unraveling. Meanwhile, the New Right’s calls for realism, sovereignty and negotiation with Moscow are gaining traction. If peace comes on Russia’s terms, as now seems inevitable, the political earthquake in Europe may be irreversible.

The Centrists’ last Stand: Rigging the game

Europe’s establishment has long treated the New Right as an existential threat—one to be contained at all costs. In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has been systematically excluded from coalitions through an unofficial “firewall,” despite winning 26% in recent polls. In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s Centrist bloc has manipulated electoral rules to block Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) from power. In Romania, the Centrists resorted to blatant lawfare, disqualifying a New Right presidential candidate on dubious legal grounds.

Yet these tactics are backfiring. Voters see through the chicanery. As historian Tarik Cyril Amar notes, “How much more of this kind of manipulation before the word ‘democracy’ loses any meaning it may still have?” The Centrists’ desperation is evident: they are ruling against the will of the people.

• Germany’s “misplaced” votes: In the 2024 elections, thousands of ballots for the left-wing BSW party mysteriously vanished, ensuring the Centrist coalition retained power. A nationwide recount has been stalled.
• France’s electoral engineering: Macron’s government gerrymandered districts to dilute RN’s influence, yet Le Pen’s party still leads polls at 34%—double Macron’s support.
• Britain’s Reform UK surge: Nigel Farage’s party, now polling at 20%, has capitalized on immigration fears and economic stagnation, positioning itself as the true opposition to Labour’s Centrist orthodoxy.

The message is clear: Europe’s voters are rejecting the status quo. And the Ukraine War’s end may be the final nail in the Centrists’ coffin.

Ukraine’s peace: The catalyst for Centrist collapse

Since 2022, Europe’s Centrist leaders have bet everything on Ukraine’s victory. They poured hundreds of billions into weapons, sanctions and propaganda, all while their own economies deindustrialized, energy prices soared and living standards plummeted. Now, with Donald Trump poised to cut U.S. aid and Russian forces advancing, the war’s conclusion is imminent—and it will be Moscow’s victory, not Kiev’s.

This reality terrifies the Centrists. For years, they have smeared the New Right as “Putin’s puppets”, using the war to justify censorship, militarization and economic sacrifice. But if peace breaks out—on Russia’s terms—their entire narrative collapses.

• The end of war scares: Centrists will no longer be able to whip up hysteria about Russian tanks rolling into Berlin. The New Right’s argument—that diplomacy, not endless war, serves Europe’s interests—will gain credibility.
• Exposing the war’s folly: Investigations into how the conflict was prolonged—by blocking negotiations in 2022, arming Ukraine with no path to victory and bankrupting Europe’s economies—will destroy Centrist credibility.
• The New Right’s vindication: Parties like AfD, RN and Reform UK, which have opposed weapons shipments and called for negotiations, will be proven right. Their realist foreign policy will become the new mainstream.

As Alice Weidel, AfD’s co-leader, recently posted on X: “The German government’s aggressive course and waste of billions on arming Ukraine must end. We need a foreign policy based on German national interests, not Washington’s.” Once the war ends, her position will be unstoppable.

The economic and migration time bomb

The New Right’s rise isn’t just about Ukraine. Two deeper crises are fueling populist anger: economic devastation and mass migration.

1. Deindustrialization and energy collapse
   • Germany’s industrial output has plummeted due to sanctions on Russian gas, forcing factories to relocate to the U.S. or Asia.
   • France faces rolling blackouts as nuclear plants age and energy costs skyrocket.
   • Britain’s post-Brexit economy is stagnant, with real wages lower than in 2008.
2. The migration powder keg
   • Over 10 million migrants from Africa and the Middle East have entered Europe since 2015.
   • Sweden, Germany and France now grapple with no-go zones, welfare strain and cultural clashes.
   • As winter approaches, unhoused migrants in Northern Europe—unprepared for cold climates—risk freezing, sparking social unrest.

The Centrists’ response? More austerity, more open borders and more virtue-signaling. The New Right’s solution? Closed borders, economic nationalism and energy independence.

The future: A new Europe or a Centrist last gasp?

The next two years will decide Europe’s fate. Elections in France (2027), Germany (2025) and Britain (2024-25) could sweep the New Right into power. If that happens:

• NATO’s Russia policy will shift: New Right governments will demand negotiations with Moscow, ending the Cold War 2.0 that has bankrupted Europe.
• The EU’s open-borders dogma will crack: Mass deportations, asylum reforms and border walls will become policy.
• The welfare state will be reformed: Pensions, healthcare and subsidies will prioritize natives over migrants, reversing decades of Centrist orthodoxy.

Yet the Centrists won’t go quietly. They will deploy every tool—censorship, legal harassment and media smears—to cling to power. The battle for Europe’s soul has begun.

The reckoning: When the dam finally breaks

Europe stands at a crossroads. The Centrists’ failures—economic ruin, migration chaos and a lost war in Ukraine—have left them exposed. The New Right, once dismissed as fringe, now offers the only coherent alternative: nationalism, realism and sovereignty.

The end of the Ukraine War will be the tipping point. When peace comes, the Centrists’ lies about Russia, their mismanagement of the economy and their betrayal of democracy will be laid bare. The New Right’s moment will arrive—not as a revolution, but as an inevitable correction.

As Nigel Farage warned in a recent speech: “The establishment has had its chance. It failed. Now, it’s our turn.”

Europe’s future is no longer in the hands of the elites. It belongs to the people—and they are demanding change.

Sources for this article include:

RT.com

MSN.com

Politco.com

Time.com